Economic Report

U.S. manufacturing in ‘rough shape’ despite tick up in industrial output in December

Production down 3.1% in the fourth quarter

Factory activity (Photo by Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images)

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The numbers: Industrial production rose 0.1% in December, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

The gain was above a 0.1% decline, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Capacity utilization held steady at 78.6%, in line with expectations.

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities.

Key details: Manufacturing rose 0.1% in December after a 0.2% gain in the prior month. 

Motor vehicles and parts output rose 1.6% after a 7.4% jump in the prior month due to the return of striking auto workers. Excluding autos, total industrial output was flat and manufacturing output was down 0.1%.

Utilities output fell 1% in December due to warmer weather. Mining output, which includes oil and natural gas, rose 0.9% after a 1% drop in the prior month.

Big picture: Business investment fell sharply in the fourth quarter. Production declined at a 3.1% annual rate in the final three months of the year, while manufacturing was down at a 2.2% rate. This will weigh on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. It remains to be seen if the recent easing in financial conditions will boost manufacturing. Early readings from the New York Fed show manufacturing conditions worsened this month.

What are they saying? “The upshot is that manufacturing remains in rough shape, and we see few signs of a material improvement ahead,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The decline in long rates towards the end of last year likely will start to lift capital spending intentions soon, but an upturn in actual spending is still several months away, at least,” he said

Market reaction: Stocks DJIA SPX opened lower on Wednesday while the 10-year Treasury note yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to 4.11% after the strong retail sales data for December.